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New Poll Shows Ernst with Lead Over Braley in US Senate Race

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DES MOINES, Iowa - A new poll released Wednesday morning shows Republican Joni Ernst with a lead over Democrat Bruce Braley in the race for the U.S. Senate to replace Sen. Tom Harkin.

The poll, released by Quinnipiac University, shows Ernst with a 50-44 percent lead over Braley among likely voters.

Ernst leads among men, 56-39 percent, while Braley leads among woman by a 50-44 percent margin.

Among independent voters, Ernst leads Braley 50-43 percent.

"The tale of independent voters tells you all you need to know about the Iowa Senate race," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll. "These independents are perhaps the most important voter bloc in the electorate and State Sen. Joni Ernst is ahead 7 percentage points among them, just about her overall lead. The key to any comeback by U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley will be chipping away at her lead among independents.

A CNN poll, released on September 12, showed Braley with a 49-48 percent lead over Ernst. A Loras College poll, released on September 8, had Braley leading Ernst 45.3-40.5 percent.

From September 10 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,167 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

22 comments

    • Sam B.

      SAMIOWA, you are what is wrong with voters! Don’t vote for the PARTY, vote for the PERSON. Obama is a LAME DUCK. president. We will be rid of him soon.

    • marcopolish

      See Sam, I really do hope you keep it up. The independents and undecideds are the judges who sway in this campaign, not you or I. The more you talk the more you display your candidate’s utter weakness and the need to undo what he has already done. Braley’s problem, his undoing in fact, is that he HAS his record. It speaks for itself, and intelligent voters (all that may be left undecided and well enough to sway the election) are not fooled by your antics and misdirections; in fact, they are all the more put off when you do. So keep it up.

  • Right Wing Patriot

    if you want business as usual, then Braley is the guy. But if we want a fresh start with a person of character and who is not phony, then vote Joni Ernst. This poll also tells me that the independents are starting to break for Ernst. Stay vigulant Ernst supporters, the slime and scum are really going to be heading our way from the Democrats.

  • marcopolish

    So glad to see her pulling away, after this flood of lying, lying and blatant lying (did I mention lying) ads from that Democrat national party super-pac. The more I receive, the more I resolve to vote against that. This man Braley has been arrogant and self-serving from the beginning, have been watching him for years now and it is amazing how corrupt one person can be. Hope she wins!

    • Sam B.

      I’m no fan of Big Old Bruce, but just WHAT has Ernst done? What are her senate-worthy credentials? Has she ever had an original thought in her life, or has she always read from a Koch Brothers script? Yeah, she can ride a Harley, shoot a gun, and castrate livestock, but where will that get us Iowans? What good will that do in the US Senate? She’s also been a token female military officer, but that doesn’t mean she’s a good person. Doesn’t mean she’s smart. She’s a Red Oak Hillbilly who is against women’s rights and FOR big business. Unless you are bankrolling her, I just don’t get why you’re drawn.

      • marcopolish

        See, once again all you have is name calling. You would have said the same about A. Lincoln PRIOR to his being elected. You’d say he was just a big railroad baron lawyer, which he was. Until he was President. Same thing with Joni. Is that all you have?

      • 131313

        Sam B. …Totally agree with you about Ernst. Also those landlines that they called are primarily old white fart conservatives. Most left leaning people do not have landlines.. The cell phones that they called were the Braley supporters.

  • marcopolish

    This slander campaign against Joni from the power money left is what is offending independents by the way. Braley shoots himself in the foot by not disavowing them, independents are fairly big on honesty. Braley will never understand that. Let’s hope it is his undoing.

      • marcopolish

        See Sam, all you can talk about are party line talking points, mindless and without effect on independents who will shift this election. It is not lost on them. You can grouse all you like, your lack of substance rings out clearly to them.

  • Get Realistic

    The sad part of all this is that the voters are so under educated about the candidates, what they truely stand for and what their past history/record is. Recent statistics have shown that 96% of incumbants get re-elected, however when polled over 77% of voters, both Democrat and Republican, give their represenatives a disapproval rating.

    It’s crazy that a perosn would just vote for a party or a name they are familiar with not knowing the issues and what a candidate is all about.

    • marcopolish

      No facts or substance to your response, I guess that is the best you have. The exact problem with liberals. Independents are not fooled, they have minds. Too bad for Braley. Good for the country and Iowa however.

    • Westie

      Sam she could have field dressed Sadam or Osama, you are undressing Bruce. That is the difference between a thinking voter and a C.S. liberal. Sam think farm stuff here.

  • tom sullivan

    brailey left veterans high and dry and he voted to cut social security programs for seniors, voted to close social security offices, making seniors drive close to 100 miles to an office, and voted to cut billions from social security for Obama-care… yeah, great guy….

    • marcopolish

      700 Billion dollars sliced from Medicare for seniors, AND Braley went out of his way to say he could do it because he was in congress, saying explicitly that he could do what he wanted BECAUSE he was in congress. The height of arrogance, and he got it from watching ultra liberal Harkin and his extremely well paid lobbyist wife Ruth (not from seeing it in Iowa, the Harkins spent nearly all of there non-Washington time in their complex in the Bahamas). Disgusting elitism from the left, boy did they ever take Plato to heart (not that leftists would know what that means).

  • Fiddlesticks

    In the ad’s, the claims made against Ernst are nothing but hearsay and comments taken ‘out of context’. While the claims against Braley are substantiated facts. At last, Braley has been challenged and his phoniness is evident. This man has done absolutely nothing during his time in the house. In the senate, he would do nothing but serve himself and the insufferable Harry Reid’s one-sided, far-left agenda. This, more specifically, is if the liberals manage to hold on to the senate majority. This race has much more riding on it than a single seat.

  • Fred Ver Schuure

    Hey Sam B., you need to have your MAN do what Obaaama did attack everything and anything involving Joni. It got us 4 moooore years with B.O, oh wasn’t it Braley that said during the Gov shutdown, that we all had to suffer as the gov. gym didn’t have towel service during the shut-down!! There will be enough Liberals for sale in the next two years, to keep Barry happy.

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